Washington, DC, 15 December 2025 — At the 70th meeting of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Council, Rosina Bierbaum, Chair of the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel (STAP), underscored that multiple environmental indicators point to increasing risks, while emphasizing that timely and informed action can still alter current trajectories.
Recent scientific assessments reveal that seven of nine planetary boundaries have been breached, including climate stability, freshwater availability, ocean health, and biodiversity. Ocean acidification officially entered the “danger zone” in 2025, posing risks to marine ecosystems and global food security. Global temperatures averaged 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, making 2025 one of the hottest years on record. Arctic sea ice volume hit historic lows, signaling accelerating climate disruption.
“These boundaries are the guardrails for a safe planet,” Bierbaum emphasized. “Crossing them risks irreversible damage to life-support systems.”
Photo: iStock
According to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report, current policies put the world on track for 2.3–2.5°C warming by 2100, even if fully implemented. Limiting warming to 1.5°C is now impossible without overshoot. Meanwhile, the Adaptation Gap Report warns that developing countries will need over $310 billion annually by 2035 to cope with escalating climate impacts. While COP30 in Belém pledged to triple adaptation finance, the gap remains vast.
Yet amid these sobering realities, there are signs of progress. In 2024, the world added 580 GW of renewable energy capacity, the largest annual increase in history. Global capacity now exceeds 4,400 GW, moving closer to the COP28 target of 11,000 GW by 2030. Over 90% of new renewable energy projects are cheaper than fossil-fuel alternatives, reinforcing the economic case for clean energy.
Science also underscores the critical role of Indigenous territories and protected areas in maintaining ecosystem connectivity, particularly in the Amazon. STAP is calling for co-designed projects with Indigenous Peoples and fit-for-purpose financing to turn visions into action. Bierbaum stressed that social resilience is not optional; it is the foundation for transformation, highlighting the need for strong institutions, resilient livelihoods, and empowered women.
Photo: ProAmazonia/UNDP Climate
Dr Bierbaum also highlighted the potential role of Artificial Intelligence in delivering transformative solutions across all GEF focal areas, but also warned of risks such as high energy and water use, e-wastes generation, and the risk of inequity, urging responsible adoption, alignment with global governance, and human oversight.
Bierbaum’s closing message was clear:
“Environmental challenges are intensifying, but the future remains within our control. By investing in resilience, empowering Indigenous Peoples and local communities, and accelerating the transition to clean energy, we can restore balance and secure lasting environmental and social benefits.”
STAP continues to provide science-based advice to the GEF Partnership, focusing on innovation, social resilience, and future-proofed conservation strategies.
Find more from STAP resources: https://www.stapgef.org/resources
Chair’s presentation: https://www.stapgef.org/resources/chairs-report-and-presentation-51
Photo: iStock
